ARTWORK DETAILS
David Aston
5050 by 2050 Future Wagers
Paper, digital interactions
C-print
2020
“a fifty-fifty chance - a result is equally likely to happen or not happen”
FURTHER DETAILS
AI was conceived in 1956 at a Dartmouth College workshop [1], One of the key debates amongst futurists, scientists and philosophers at the centre of AI research since has been when AI will reach and exceed human-level machine intelligence (HLMI).
A survey conducted by the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford, Future Progress in Artificial Intelligence: A Survey of Expert Opinion [2] polled 550 experts and asked “by what year would you assign a 10%, 50%, 90% chance of the development of HLMI?” The view amongst selected experts was a 50% probably that AI will reach overall human ability by 2040-50 (90% probability by 2075) and 75% probability of superintelligence within 30 years thereafter.
Taken in the context of hundres of thousands of years of human evolution, this research, suggesting that we may be living with advanced machine intelligence within 30-60 years is profound and inspired Oracle and the 50:50 by 2050 series.
5050 by 2050 Future Wagers
In an effort to continue this line of enquiry I wanted to undertake some research and investigations of my own. Part performance, part visual art, my chosen method was to move beyond the fields of academia and data science and engage high-street and online betting agencies in the creation of a contract for this prediction. A future wager.
I chose betting shops because in order to accept a contract for this future wager each party, clear of professional bias, would have to move beyond the theoretical and carefully consider the validity of this outcome. Creating such a contract would force a commercial evaluation of the probability and a numerical calculation of the perceived odds for human-level machine intelligence.
I have approached a number of the major high street and online betting agencies, and recorded the interactions with each. To date all have declined to offer odds. The work and debate continues…
TALKS & EDUCATION
2023 | Whitechapel Gallery | East London Art Prize x Whitechapel Gallery | In conversation with Anders Sandberg on the intersection of art & AI | Whitechapel Gallery | London: https://www.whitechapelgallery.org/events/east-london-art-prize-x-whitechapel-gallery/